Hedging Signals
Actionable signals derived from vessel, inventory, and flow intelligence
West Africa → Asia flow surge detected. 12 VLCCs loaded in 7 days vs 8 avg. Brent-Dubai spread likely to narrow as Asian supply tightens.
Cushing stocks drew 3.2M bbl vs consensus -1.8M. Physical tightness at hub. WTI front-month backwardation likely to steepen further.
Jamnagar + Nayara both reducing runs. Indian demand proxy weakening. Medium-sour crude differential likely to widen.
Seasonal gasoline demand ramp starting. Refinery maintenance peaking — US utilization at 87.2%. Crack spreads historically rally 15-25% in March-May.
AG VLCC rates spiked to WS 68 (+12 WoW). Vessel availability in AG tightened. Signals increased liftings — bullish for physical Brent.
DOE announced 12M bbl SPR release over Q2. Market hasn't fully priced in the supply addition. Downside risk to WTI flat price.
Turkish Straits congestion blocking CPC Blend. Med refinery demand for sour crude exceeding supply. Urals differential tightening.
Shandong teapot refineries resuming operations post-LNY. AIS shows 8 VLCCs heading to Qingdao/Rizhao. Import demand pick-up.
Brent forward curve in deep contango past Dec26. Historically mean-reverts when OECD stocks fall below 5yr avg. Inventory draws accelerating.
Floating storage rose to 78M bbl — highest since Aug 2024. Economics of floating storage deteriorating as contango narrows. Expect liquidation selling.